The Packers preseason will give us a good indication

NFL preseason games are a good gauge for regular season success

By Greg Dempson

The very first nationally published article I wrote (in Winner's Edge magazine) contained a football quote by Bill Parcells, the master at winning and covering preseason contests. Parcells stated, "People who think preseason football is meaningless don't know anything about football."

Preseason success is a remarkably accurate barometer in determining a teams' success during the regular season. Did you know that 30 out of the previous 39 Super Bowl champions (76.9%) won .500 or more of their preseason contests straight up? You do now! Since Super Bowl I, the 39 winning teams had a combined preseason margin of 116 - 68 - 2 or 62.3% straight up. Marv Levy was one coach who didn't take the preseason seriously; he had a losing record in three of the four preseason years that Buffalo advanced to the Super Bowl. Perhaps that is one of the reasons why the Bills went 0 - 4 straight up!

Free agency and parity as well as salary caps have changed the way the game is played since 1993. When reviewing the past decade, I noted the following preseason records with regards to the past 11 Super Bowl champions.

1994 - the 49ers went 3 - 1.
1995 - the Cowboys went 2 - 3.
1996 - the Packers 3 - 1.
1997 - the Broncos went 3 - 2.
1998 - the Broncos went 3 - 1.
1999 - the Rams went 2 - 2.
2000 - the Ravens went 4 - 0.
2001 - the Patriots went 3 - 1.
2002 - the Buccaneers went 3 - 1.
2003 - the Patriots went 4 - 0.
2004 - the Patriots went 1-3

The past 11 Super Bowl winners produced a 31 - 15 or 67.3% preseason record and only the Cowboys (1995) and Patriots (2004) had a losing records in the preseason. Both the Cowboys and Patriots were defending Super Bowl Champions so they were able to overcome their poor pre-season records.

Just curious. Does anyone know what the Packers record in preseason was under Ray Rhodes? That was probably the most undisciplined bunch of thugs ever to don the Green and Gold. I remember countless personal foul penalties during that season.

I'm a Parcells fan and I agree with him. Pre-season football sets the tone for the season. Everything you want to do during the season is established during those preseason games. You find out who wants to play, who can play, and you find out how quickly your coaches and teams can adjust to a game plan change. I love the preseason.

NOT this again!

YOU also predicted that the Packers will finish 7-9 and miss the playoffs as a result of their 'poor' performance in the preseason.

I personally am glad that the PACKERS actually PLAYED the regular season and NOT listened to you.

if i recall..the PAck had to dig themselves out of quite a hole in the beginning of the season...

Sherman should get on his knees and thank his lucky stars that he has ol' #4 on the team to bail him out year after year!

preseason means next to nothing...see Redskins under Spurrier.

it's a great opportunity to see what your bench can do........against the opponents bench that is.

The Bears went 1-3 in 1985 and finished the season 18-1 and dominated like no other team in history that year. The pre-season record means nothing. It is just a way to weed out the "on the bubble" players and nothing more.

This thread made me laugh.

I would rather give credit to last year's Offensive Line Unit - than just Brett Favre... It will ALWAYS take a Team to get it done! It's NEVER Just one guy! That's the media talkin' - not football.

I don't believe the Pre-season is an accurate measurement, either!
It does... however.. allow the Team(s) to play against "other" teams.. instead of their own 2nd, 3rd, and practice Units, back at home.... THAT is what opens the eyes of the Rookies and re-awakens the veterans as to what they are about to get into..... I've seen several Teams win all four pre-season games and never make it to the final game. It wakes up the Teams and the fans. Maybe it should be longer - maybe it should be shorter... who knows - but it's a good thing, even with some players who end up getting injured when they may not have... - it is not..and accurate barometer!

I agree with IPB... only when it counts are you going to see the real teams strategy lineups and playbook. It's all vanilla in the preseason

What Parcells was saying, I think, is the pre-season is used to judge the talent under game conditions. From that perspective, it is very important. It also allows the coaching staff the chance to put in under pressure the vanilla form of their offensive and defensive packages. So the pre-season is important from that perspective.
What winning the pre-season means more than anything is a winning team isn't likely to change much. The veterans simply keep the continuity going and often defeat other teams behind them who are less prepared. But lacking from this analysis are the teams that had a good pre-season then faltered. In Lombardi's day, the world champs lost to the College All-Stars. They didn't falter after that.

Losses bring on reality checks no matter when in the season they happen, net. And you are right in the fact the the preseason is used to bring the rookies up to speed and jell with the Vets, but that is the real locus of preseason games in the first place.

So if the Packers go 0-4 in the pre-season they should forfeit?

Uh-uh... No way - It can only take one game in the regular season - be that the Opener of whatever.. and the Packers could slam that door shut entirely... Let's walk down memory lane for a sec -- Remember the Opener at Carolina? Didn't Carolina get all the cudos? Weren't THEY.... the Team that was supposed to wipe the map with us small-town french fries....? And, look what happened!

Pre-season is a way to judge the men on the line going up against someone other than those they already know in the Locker Room. I don't think they should change a thing! (Course, 'ceptin' for the way Instant Replay is ruled...)

i remember that, it was embarassing--i recall the game where the eagles played at lambeau (but we actually won, i'm thinking 14-7?) personal foul after personal foul, both teams--i believe that was during rhodes' short stay as coach

This is Steel Wheels' (Chase's) obsession. He went on and on last year about how the Packers would miss the playoffs because they went 1-3 in the preseason. The preseason means little to nothing. It's a chance to see who has the heart to play on your special teams and who you might like to keep on your practise squad. Other than that, it means very little.

Preseason is also the breeding ground of injuries. That is why the NFL should lessen the number of them or eliminate all together. The Bears have freakin' 5 PS games this year! There's something wrong with that. All about the $, I suppose.

Nah - I'd rather they leave it "as is"...
The Packers took their turn against KC, remember?

yeah i think 2 or 3 preseason games would be fine.

#4 has bailed out more then one Packer personnell during his career.