Rostering and Capology

[NOMOFO]

I'm just about as bad as a person can be at math but I do understand the basic principles of how Ted Thompson rosters a team. It honestly appears that Thompson critics have absolutely no clue how the Packers have been so competitive under him and they're trying very hard to find blame for him winning "only" one Super Bowl three long years ago and having "only" the 5th best winning percentage the past 10 years.

Here is the basic idea behind re-upping players and how signing free agents impacts ones ability to do that. Ted haters need to at some point understand, it's not usually that everyone doesn't agree a certain free agent wouldn't make the team better. It's just that EVERY signings' "cost" needs to be commensurate to the ADDED value that individual player brings! Also, that "cost" is NOT only in hard dollars. It can also be a lost roster spot to a young player that was growing experience and it can cost the CAP space down the road.

I’ll just use round numbers here to keep it simple.

Let’s say a key Packer player is under contract for 1 million a season for 2 more years. That means he will be getting 2 million TOTAL after his contract expires in 2016.

It would be awfully hard for this player to turn down a re-up offer of a 4 million signing bonus and a 20 million contract over 4 years. Let’s say the contract progresses at the back end like most do, and 3 million hits each of the first two seasons. He would be getting 10 million at the end of 2016 instead of 2 million. (6 mill total for two years plus the 4 mill bonus)

Most players jump all over those types of offers. They understand that that’s 8 million more than they would have had in hand. Starting year three the Packers are saving CAP space by the millions having extended this guy and they have this hole/position filled for 2 more years than they previously had.

The other benefits? Consistency... continuity....familiarity ...

Or

Let’s NOT spend the money on this key Packer player and instead use that 4 million to sign a free agent for 2 years. This is EXACTLY what the Seahogs did the past few years. This great, amazing free agent is sure to get us a Super Bowl like every free agent does for their new teams right? Heck, BACK TO BACK Super Bowls. Ya...that’s it! (in his best Jon Lovitz voice)

Well, after two seasons, we now have THIS free agent expired AND the other key player expired. ...but it was certainly worth it because we have TWO Super Bowls, back to back baby! lol

Under this scenario the Packers now have not one but TWO major holes to fill. At this point we can pray to get lucky in the draft to fill them or get right back into that great deal of a free agent pool and fork out even more money! C’mon, it’s not like there’s not tons of great free agent players available every year at any position we might have a need for!

Ummmmmmm... I think we all understand that this one free agent will at best “improve” our “chances” to win a Super Bowl. The greater majority of free agents will end up at home watching the Super Bowl with 29 other teams. ....and there are usually one or two solid proven players at most at each position even available in free agency so good luck filling those two new holes.

Say what you want and try to spin it all day long Ted haters.... but Ted Thompson's approach has this team PERENIALLY as one of the favorites to make a Super Bowl run.

 

[NOMOFO]

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[Deleted member 6794]

If it's a key Packers player and he makes a $1 million a year I'm pretty sure he's still on his rookie contract, so once again, you can't renegotiate his contract with two years left.

Sometimes extending a contract early doesn't work out, like the one TT signed Burnett to. It would have been way cheaper to re-sign him now.

I expect a GM to sign players to reasonable contracts, no matter if it's extending a player on the roster or signing a free agent.

For example, if he had signed George Wilson for two years and $4 million last year instead of extending Burnett we would be better at safety now and in addition would have more cap space as well.

 

[El Guapo]

I'm with you 100% NOMOFO, although there are folks that will say that neither strategy produced a SB trophy and that one team is still playing.

Some folks won't ever buy into this style of player acquisition. Often times there are guys like the dear-departed Bus Cook that can't get past TT letting Wahle and Rivera go and then pushing Favre out the door. You can't convince those people.

I think that most people, even TT detractors, would admit that he and Russ Ball have done a great job with the salary cap. We have kept most of our best players and have had room to make additional moves. The base frustration with some is the lack of willingness to make those FA moves. For some people there is no reason to carry a cap surplus, but Thompson is certainly the type that takes advantage of carrying the cap forward into future years.

There really is nothing wrong with the system unless you don't draft well. We all know that he drafts well on offense for the most part, but he and his staff haven't been as strong on the defensive side. I can see the argument for spending on a FA if the cap space exists and it doesn't put a stranglehold on future seasons. Unfortunately, none of us really know how the cap gets planned and managed for by the Packers.

It would be a great project for someone to do a retroactive financial audit of the Packers cap, to see how decisions were made and the effects that they had on future seasons - and of course who the potential free agents were at the time and how the deals they struck with other teams would have affected the Packers, positively or negatively.

 

[NOMOFO]

If it's a key Packers player and he makes a $1 million a year I'm pretty sure he's still on his rookie contract, so once again, you can't renegotiate his contract with two years left.

Sometimes extending a contract early doesn't work out, like the one TT signed Burnett to. It would have been way cheaper to re-sign him now.

I expect a GM to sign players to reasonable contracts, no matter if it's extending a player on the roster or signing a free agent.

For example, if he had signed George Wilson for two years and $4 million last year instead of extending Burnett we would be better at safety now and in addition would have more cap space as well.

lol...like i said ...it was an example with simple numbers. add some zeros ...it's the same theory!

 

[El Guapo]

A good start for folks that want to understand more about how the cap works:

http://overthecap.com/a-guide-to-the-nfl-salary-cap/

 

[RustyShackleford]

It honestly appears that Thompson critics have absolutely no clue how the Packers have been so competitive under him and they're trying very hard to find blame for him winning "only" one Super Bowl three long years ago and having "only" the 5th best winning percentage the past 10 years.

I like Ted Thompson, but the line of reasoning that he shouldn't be criticized since the Packers are perennially contenders is flawed. The Packers have an MVP/HOF caliber quarterback (due credit to TT for that, of course) and that's all it takes. Can you name a MVP/HOF QB in the past 20 years or so that wasn't on a contender? I can't. Did they all just happen to have great GM's? In today's NFL you could surround an elite QB with a bunch of scrubs and you'll still win most of your games.

There really is nothing wrong with the system unless you don't draft well. We all know that he drafts well on offense for the most part, but he and his staff haven't been as strong on the defensive side. I can see the argument for spending on a FA if the cap space exists and it doesn't put a stranglehold on future seasons. Unfortunately, none of us really know how the cap gets planned and managed for by the Packers.

This to me is where the criticism of TT needs to be focused. He's spent a lot of draft picks of defense and it just hasn't worked out. For a draft and develop guy that's a real problem. It may not be something that needs to be solved through free agency, though. It may be simply a matter of changing the process/personnel of the scouting department. Something's definitely not working, though, and he needs to figure out what it is and fix it.

 

[El Guapo]

One can always look at the losses in the talent evaluation department. They've lost Schneider, Dorsey, and McKenzie to top posts with the Raiders, Chiefs, and Seahawks (any others that I'm missing?). The guy now heading up Thompson's player personnel department is of course Ron Wolf's son, Eliot.

If you believe that Schneider, Dorsey, and McKenzie were the core of Thompson's drafting success, then it's not hard to see why our recent drafts may not have been as strong. One theory is that you toss the baby out with the bathwater. However, Thompson was smart enough to surround himself with good talent evaluators in the past so I'm inclined to believe that he can get there again. Of course, it's not something that can be easily evaluated in a year's time - which is admittedly a problem in today's NFL. Most agree that this year was a pretty good draft class again, although still tilted towards the offensive side of the ball. It's easy for arm-chair GMs to sit around and state that we should be doing more of the opposite (free agency) when the current process isn't working. It's harder but more effective to do it Thompson's way, but he's got to get it right.

I think that the overall point most of us make is that Thompson deserves a level of trust to rebuild the team, the same way that he did after taking over in 2005. It took five years to go from that point to a SB victory. I'm will to "suffer" and "endure" five more winning seasons of football to get there.

 

[FrankRizzo]

There's a lot of luck involved too.
Good, and bad.

But one can be over-dependent/reliant on rookies, young guys, as opposed to some fair-priced veterans via free agency.
That (at safety particularily) and the luck (******** high amount of injuries) have what has kept us from winning any playoff games at all other than the magical 2010 season.

 

[adambr2]

Agreed. Offering early contracts is risk/reward. If your player outperforms the contract, it was a great deal (Jordy Nelson). If not, you're left with a bad contract. (Burnett).

Case in point, Brad Jones has a $4M cap hit in 2014. That's painful, because, really, does Brad Jones bring anything to the table that Lattimore could not have for $500K? AJ Hawk has a $5.1M cap hit.
That's over $9M burned between two mediocre players. We're burning $9M on Hawk and Jones, and the 49ers are spending $14M on Bowman and Willis. How much more of an impact is that for just $5M more?

So it's not just the amount of the contract that makes a guy overpaid, but his value relative to that amount. It works the other way, too. Rodgers is worth every penny of his $22M a year to us. If his market value was $30M a year, we should pay it. Meanwhile, Flacco makes $20.1M a year in Baltimore to be an average NFL QB.

 

[7thFloorRA]

Damn that Brad Jones contract is just awful. What did TT see that no one else saw?

 

[raj34]

blah blah blah

Say what you want and try to spin it all day long Ted haters.... but Ted Thompson's approach has this team PERENIALLY as one of the favorites to make a Super Bowl run.

You forgot the part about how Ted is fortunate to have one of the best qb's in the game

I like Ted Thompson, but the line of reasoning that he shouldn't be criticized since the Packers are perennially contenders is flawed. The Packers have an MVP/HOF caliber quarterback (due credit to TT for that, of course) and that's all it takes. Can you name a MVP/HOF QB in the past 20 years or so that wasn't on a contender? I can't. Did they all just happen to have great GM's? In today's NFL you could surround an elite QB with a bunch of scrubs and you'll still win most of your games.



This to me is where the criticism of TT needs to be focused. He's spent a lot of draft picks of defense and it just hasn't worked out. For a draft and develop guy that's a real problem. It may not be something that needs to be solved through free agency, though. It may be simply a matter of changing the process/personnel of the scouting department. Something's definitely not working, though, and he needs to figure out what it is and fix it.

This is a fantastic rebuttal to that gigantic strawman NOMO was bludgeoning the forum with. In his mind, the world is divided into foaming-at-the-mouth Thompson haters and rational knowledgable, cuddly Packer fans. There's actually some territory in the middle.

 

[NOMOFO]

I like Ted Thompson, but the line of reasoning that he shouldn't be criticized since the Packers are perennially contenders is flawed. The Packers have an MVP/HOF caliber quarterback (due credit to TT for that, of course) and that's all it takes. Can you name a MVP/HOF QB in the past 20 years or so that wasn't on a contender? I can't. Did they all just happen to have great GM's? In today's NFL you could surround an elite QB with a bunch of scrubs and you'll still win most of your games.

This to me is where the criticism of TT needs to be focused. He's spent a lot of draft picks of defense and it just hasn't worked out. For a draft and develop guy that's a real problem. It may not be something that needs to be solved through free agency, though. It may be simply a matter of changing the process/personnel of the scouting department. Something's definitely not working, though, and he needs to figure out what it is and fix it.

Agreed about the defensive draft picks and I said that a million times. I also said he's made a few errors in contract signings but they are few and far between.

My biggest issue is not people ragging on TT. It's that they are completely clueless about the reality of NFL rostering and free agency! ...and ALL the proof shows Ted's way is the best way to remain competitive.

 

[longtimefan]

Can you name a MVP/HOF QB in the past 20 years or so that wasn't on a contender? I can't. Did they all just happen to have great GM's? In today's NFL you could surround an elite QB with a bunch of scrubs and you'll still win most of your games.

.

Trent Dilfer Baltimore

Jake Delhomme 2003 Panthers

Chris Chandler 98 Falcons

Stan Humphries 94 chargers

 

[Carl]

There's also a reward to not getting free agents which I haven't seen brought up yet, which is compensatory picks.

Jennings contract last season and the Colts overpaying for Walden compared with no big contracts coming could give the Packers a good extra pick or two.

 

[NOMOFO]

Trent Dilfer Baltimore

Jake Delhomme 2003 Panthers

Chris Chandler 98 Falcons

Stan Humphries 94 chargers

ya... that comment was just a tad whacked to say the least. For God's sake, MOST HOF QBs lived thru at least a few losing seasons.

 

[RustyShackleford]

Trent Dilfer Baltimore

Jake Delhomme 2003 Panthers

Chris Chandler 98 Falcons

Stan Humphries 94 chargers

So the question was whether there was HOF caliber quarterbacks that weren't on consistently contending teams and you list 4 scrubs that went to the Super Bowl. I'm thinking you misunderstood the question (or you believe those 4 are HOF quality).

Looks like you weren't alone though.

 

[TJV]

Case in point, Brad Jones has a $4M cap hit in 2014. That's painful, because, really, does Brad Jones bring anything to the table that Lattimore could not have for $500K?

I too think Jones is overpaid but IMO once Lattimore got on the field we saw why Jones was starting ahead of him. Look at the Bears game, Lattimore was not good. Being fast is great but it doesn't matter if you're out of position. I think Jones was signed because he was expected to provide good pass coverage from the ILB. Like I said he's overpaid but he was better than Lattimore this season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

My biggest issue is not people ragging on TT. It's that they are completely clueless about the reality of NFL rostering and free agency!

Well, then thanks for sharing your wisdom with us, as it seems like you´re the only one truly understanding it.

BTW, Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett, two important pieces of the 2010 Super Bowl team, were free agent signings by TT. Seems like he doesn´t get that stuff with free agency either.

 

[NOMOFO]

Well, then thanks for sharing your wisdom with us, as it seems like you´re the only one truly understanding it.

BTW, Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett, two important pieces of the 2010 Super Bowl team, were free agent signings by TT. Seems like he doesn´t get that stuff with free agency either.

Nope, it appears to me that more Packer fans get it than don't! ...but nice try! You clearly don't.

AGAIN... it's easy for arm chair QB clowns to come on a forum AFTER THE FACT and endlessly pop off about all of the horrible moves Ted made and point to all of these wonderful signings and how they worked out and suggest THAT proves your point. Like I said captainWIMM, do you really want to play that game? Cuz, I am MORE than happy to do it! For every "great" free agent signing in the NFL I will give you 10 that SUCKED.

Beyond that, AGAIN- guys like you are sad because you're NEVER honest with yourselves! I think of all of the free agent players that, YEAR AFTER YEAR guys like you scream we should go after and the guys end up being a complete negative for the team they signed with! IT HAPPENS EVERY SINGLE YEAR!

You can stand on your head and hold your breath...then run in circles with your arms waiving in the air....jump up and down and bark like a dog...and when you stop....guess what? The Packers will still be the 5th winningest team the past 10 years and will STILL be just three years removed from the Super Bowl. Not sure why guys like you have such a hard time understanding facts and living in the real world.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Nope, it appears to me that more Packer fans get it than don't! ...but nice try! You clearly don't.

Once again, just because you think the only way to run a team is not signing a single free agent doesn´t make it the right way!!!

AGAIN... it's easy for arm chair QB clowns to come on a forum AFTER THE FACT and endlessly pop off about all of the horrible moves Ted made and point to all of these wonderful signings and how they worked out and suggest THAT proves your point. Like I said captainWIMM, do you really want to play that game? Cuz, I am MORE than happy to do it! For every "great" free agent signing in the NFL I will give you 10 that SUCKED.

I haven´t complained in any of the current threads about free agents TT didn´t sign over the last few seasons. But, IMO, he has to sign a safety and an ILB to reasonable contracts to help this defense, especially cause it will be really tough to get immediate help at those positions in this year´s draft.

It would be great if you could come up with one free agent signing TT made that made a negative impact on the Packers compareable to the impact Pickett and Woodson had.

 

[El Guapo]

Everyone getting down on Jones is ignoring that he played pretty well during the first three weeks of the season. Most evaluators were actually complimentary about Jones. Then in the fourth game, he pulled his hamstring and it took a month to get back on the field. He was definitely nursing that hamstring after his return and wasn't the same. Then as he was getting his speed and range back, he hurt his ankle and played on that the final 4 weeks and the playoffs.

Lattimore brings some Wayne Simmons type of toughness to the ILB spot, but he is young. In other threads TT has been blamed for the Capers phenomenon, meaning that TT is responsible for the lack of veterans to run Caper's 3-4 defense. So he brings back a veteran defender at ILB, who plays hurt for most of the season, and TT still catches crap. I think that the position is in better shape than most of you think. Game changers? Agreed, they aren't there. However, a healthy Jones and Hawk are a good veteran duo in the 3-4.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I'm just about as bad as a person can be at math but I do understand the basic principles of how Ted Thompson rosters a team. It honestly appears that Thompson critics have absolutely no clue how the Packers have been so competitive under him and they're trying very hard to find blame for him winning "only" one Super Bowl three long years ago and having "only" the 5th best winning percentage the past 10 years.

Here is the basic idea behind re-upping players and how signing free agents impacts ones ability to do that. Ted haters need to at some point understand, it's not usually that everyone doesn't agree a certain free agent wouldn't make the team better. It's just that EVERY signings' "cost" needs to be commensurate to the ADDED value that individual player brings! Also, that "cost" is NOT only in hard dollars. It can also be a lost roster spot to a young player that was growing experience and it can cost the CAP space down the road.

I’ll just use round numbers here to keep it simple.

Let’s say a key Packer player is under contract for 1 million a season for 2 more years. That means he will be getting 2 million TOTAL after his contract expires in 2016.

It would be awfully hard for this player to turn down a re-up offer of a 4 million signing bonus and a 20 million contract over 4 years. Let’s say the contract progresses at the back end like most do, and 3 million hits each of the first two seasons. He would be getting 10 million at the end of 2016 instead of 2 million. (6 mill total for two years plus the 4 mill bonus)

Most players jump all over those types of offers. They understand that that’s 8 million more than they would have had in hand. Starting year three the Packers are saving CAP space by the millions having extended this guy and they have this hole/position filled for 2 more years than they previously had.

The other benefits? Consistency... continuity....familiarity ...

Or

Let’s NOT spend the money on this key Packer player and instead use that 4 million to sign a free agent for 2 years. This is EXACTLY what the Seahogs did the past few years. This great, amazing free agent is sure to get us a Super Bowl like every free agent does for their new teams right? Heck, BACK TO BACK Super Bowls. Ya...that’s it! (in his best Jon Lovitz voice)

Well, after two seasons, we now have THIS free agent expired AND the other key player expired. ...but it was certainly worth it because we have TWO Super Bowls, back to back baby! lol

Under this scenario the Packers now have not one but TWO major holes to fill. At this point we can pray to get lucky in the draft to fill them or get right back into that great deal of a free agent pool and fork out even more money! C’mon, it’s not like there’s not tons of great free agent players available every year at any position we might have a need for!

Ummmmmmm... I think we all understand that this one free agent will at best “improve” our “chances” to win a Super Bowl. The greater majority of free agents will end up at home watching the Super Bowl with 29 other teams. ....and there are usually one or two solid proven players at most at each position even available in free agency so good luck filling those two new holes.

Say what you want and try to spin it all day long Ted haters.... but Ted Thompson's approach has this team PERENIALLY as one of the favorites to make a Super Bowl run.

Thompson is a good GM. Packers have a terrific front office. That said, I don't understand why it's so far fetched to suggest that our recent front office losses (Schneider, McKenzie, Dorsey) have reduced our ability to draft as well as we did 4+ years ago. Just look at our recent few drafts, good players on offense, not so much on defense. Teams have two ways to build their team. Draft and free agency. When one doesn't work as well as it used to, then perhaps you should supplement with the other avenue.

Your example is also enormously biased. You assume that the only free agents you can sign are going to create cap problems. Carolina Panthers signed safety Michael Mitchell last year for one year at one million. He played 920 snaps for one of the better defenses in the NFC and he was an average safety. You don't think having Mitchell on the team would have improved the Packers' defense last year? And how exactly would his one year, one million dollar contract have hamstrung the team? Yes, lots of free agents don't work out, that's why I'm completely fine with not signing top-tier free agents like Graham or Byrd. However, there are also lots of mid-tier, low-tier free agents that help their new teams A LOT.

I could also add in this that Rodgers might have more to do with the Packers' success than Thompson. Now I don't necessarily believe this right now (but I will if the Packers continue to struggle against the best teams) but having a great QB is a GM and coach's dream because you can be mediocre at your job as GM and coach and that great QB is going to get you to the playoffs pretty much every year and, if you're really lucky with injuries (to you and other teams), you can make some deep playoff runs. A great QB can cover up problems not only on the field but off it as well.

If Thompson continues to struggle at drafting defensive players (I'm crossing my fingers this doesn't happen and that a healthy Perry, Worthy and Jones will make this whole discussion moot) when does it become a valid question to wonder if Thompson isn't as good as we think, he just has a great QB making his offensive selections look great? That last question is not an indictment of Thompson or me claiming that he sucks. I'm just curious how many more years of leeway Thompson gets if his draft selections on defense continue to have minimal impact on the field (off topic I know, but I just kind of go with it sometimes when i'm typing).

 

[NOMOFO]

Once again, just because you think the only way to run a team is not signing a single free agent doesn´t make it the right way!!!



I haven´t complained in any of the current threads about free agents TT didn´t sign over the last few seasons. But, IMO, he has to sign a safety and an ILB to reasonable contracts to help this defense, especially cause it will be really tough to get immediate help at those positions in this year´s draft.

It would be great if you could come up with one free agent signing TT made that made a negative impact on the Packers compareable to the impact Pickett and Woodson had.

LMAO.! WHAT? Oooooh my God! Ummmm...I'm the one suggesting Ted doesn't make stupid free agent signings. I'm the one suggesting free agents signing are usually NOT a good deal and the right thing to do and I support TT's methods. YOU on the other hand are arguing the opposite AND YET... here you are asking me to come up with a negative impact Thompson signing? GOT IT!

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh.... captain.... big shooter.... you won't find many. That's MY point!!!! Ted doesn't make the mistakes YOU are trying to tell us he SHOULD!

This really is getting silly. You guys are literally spinning yourselves in circles and not even making sense. lol

 

[Deleted member 6794]

LMAO.! WHAT? Oooooh my God! Ummmm...I'm the one suggesting Ted doesn't make stupid free agent signings. I'm the one suggesting free agents signing are usually NOT a good deal and the right thing to do and I support TT's methods. YOU on the other hand are arguing the opposite AND YET... here you are asking me to come up with a negative impact Thompson signing? GOT IT!

I´m the one wanting TT to go out this offseason and sign a safety and ILB to reasonable contracts, having provided names of players which I think wouldn´t cost a lot of money.

The only thing you have done so far is bashing other people who don´t agree with you, claiming your way is the only acceptable one while calling everyone that doesn´t agree with you clueless. AND ALL OF THAT WITHOUT PROVIDING ANY FACTS!!!