Packing the Stats: Did Jermichael Finley Steal attention from Greg Jennings?

[PackersRS]

Awesome, awesome article, one of the best written in the offseason. A great break from all the lockout talk, and finally some serious, conclusive football talk, and not some top 10 list, or just an opinion.

Packing the Stats: Did Jermichael Finley Steal Attention From Greg Jennings? | AllGreenBayPackers.Com

As a new Collective Bargaining Agreement looms hopeful in the future, the return of Jermichael Finley to the Green Bay Packers offense has become an exciting topic of conversation. During the Week 5 game against the Washington Redskins, Finley suffered a lateral meniscus tear in his right knee, permanently sidelining him for the remainder of the 2010 season.
Now, after surgery and months of rehabilitation, the match-up nightmare tight end is set to return stronger than ever in 2011. (Even most of our readers agree he’ll be the “Comeback Player of the Year.”)
But some people have wondered: what is going to happen to Greg Jennings’ production with Finley back in the mix?
After not having a 100+ yard game until Week 6 (and after letting his frustrations be known publicly), Jennings seemed like he was being overlooked by offensive play-caller Mike McCarthy and quarterback Aaron Rodgers in favor of Finley. Even the fans started wondering why, over the first four games, Jennings only had 12 receptions for 161 yards.
Meanwhile, in that span of time, Finley had 21 receptions for 301 yards.
You can see where the criticism stems from. You’ve got the best receiver on the team apparently playing second fiddle to the best tight end on the team. Not only did Finley gain, on average, 35 more yards per game, he also had two games with 100+ receiving yards. Jennings had none.



JENNINGS FINLEY WK OPP REC YDS REC YDS 1 @PHI 5 82 4 47 2 BUF 3 36 4 103 3 @CHI 2 18 9 115 4 DET 2 25 4 36
TOTAL: 12 161 21 301

Do these numbers tell the whole story, though?

The chart didn't get translated in the process of copy and paste, so take a look at the site to see it in full.

BTW, I completely agree with his premise and conclusion, I had a debate with Ivo a while ago about it, and Finley was NOT the reason Jennings struggled early on, and the article shows it.

 

[ivo610]

The debate I remember was Finleys impact on the offense, not Finley vs Jennings.

 

[PackersRS]

The debate I remember was Finleys impact on the offense, not Finley vs Jennings.

Actually, the article and the stats prove with even more eficiency that question rather than Finley x Jennings.

Finley was only once the most targeted receiver of the Packers, game 4 against DET, when he saw 29.4% of the balls coming his way (5 targets) tied with Jennings for that day. Jennings was the most targeted receiver week 1 (33.33%) and week 4 (29.4%), Jones was the most targeted week 2 (25%) and Driver was the most targeted week 3 (25.6%).

Finley was NOT being overtargeted. But he was making the most of his targets, so it appeared Rodgers was forcing the ball to him. While undobtedly Rodgers did force some balls Finley's way, he did the same with the other players. The struggles of the offense early on had other factors, but Finley was NOT one of them.

As for Finley interfering with Jennngs, as I said over at JerseyalGBP.com, the stats do support that he wasn't, but a more comprehensive look at every target AFTER Finley went down would indicate it more properly.
There's a chance that the bulk of Finley's targets, as opposed to being distributed equally among receivers, were converted to Jennings. So, instead of the ball being distributed equally, like when Finley was active, Rodgers was forcing the ball to Jennings, and with the extra reps, Jennings improved his game, much like a running back who gets better when he has 20+ carries.

That way, Finley would in fact interfere with the offense. But not because of being overtargeted, rather because the offense would work better (if that's the case) when the ball is forced to Jennings.

There's also another way that Finley could be interfering, and that is if he was the #1 target most of the time (which stats do not show), and that somehow disrupted the offense.

But, in any case, it's not Finley's fault. He wasn't being forced the ball. What the stats show is that, actually, Finley was a great weapon, and his addition will make the offense even better.

 

[ivo610]

Actually, the article and the stats prove with even more eficiency that question rather than Finley x Jennings.

Finley was only once the most targeted receiver of the Packers, game 4 against DET, when he saw 29.4% of the balls coming his way (5 targets) tied with Jennings for that day. Jennings was the most targeted receiver week 1 (33.33%) and week 4 (29.4%), Jones was the most targeted week 2 (25%) and Driver was the most targeted week 3 (25.6%).

Finley was NOT being overtargeted. But he was making the most of his targets, so it appeared Rodgers was forcing the ball to him. While undobtedly Rodgers did force some balls Finley's way, he did the same with the other players. The struggles of the offense early on had other factors, but Finley was NOT one of them.

As for Finley interfering with Jennngs, as I said over at JerseyalGBP.com, the stats do support that he wasn't, but a more comprehensive look at every target AFTER Finley went down would indicate it more properly.
There's a chance that the bulk of Finley's targets, as opposed to being distributed equally among receivers, were converted to Jennings. So, instead of the ball being distributed equally, like when Finley was active, Rodgers was forcing the ball to Jennings, and with the extra reps, Jennings improved his game, much like a running back who gets better when he has 20+ carries.

That way, Finley would in fact interfere with the offense. But not because of being overtargeted, rather because the offense would work better (if that's the case) when the ball is forced to Jennings.

There's also another way that Finley could be interfering, and that is if he was the #1 target most of the time (which stats do not show), and that somehow disrupted the offense.

But, in any case, it's not Finley's fault. He wasn't being forced the ball. What the stats show is that, actually, Finley was a great weapon, and his addition will make the offense even better.

... again, I wasnt arguing Jennings vs Finley. you keep bringing up Jennings, thats nice and all but only part of the offense.

I think to prove anything you would have to show stats from more than 4 games.

I really dont care about Jennings or Finleys personal numbers. I care about the offense as a whole. I care ever so slightly about Drivers numbers only bc I want him to snatch a few franchise records next season and bc I have a man crush on him. Dont judge lol.

I do remember Rodgers forcing a throw to Jennings resulting in an INT, in I think the Miami game. back to back throws which seemed so uncharacteristic of him.

 

[ivo610]

And please let this lockout end soon. Absolutely no news of note coming out. Driving me crazy. Oh Pryor is going to jump into the Sup draft? greeeeat. dont care. Oh a break down of how experts think he will do? In case I havent seen an ohio state game in the last couple years? thanks. This is making baseball seem appealing

 

[greenandgold]

Well, maybe Finley was open more. I would have thrown to him too.

 

[YouFrgotPoland]

I don't know. I'm just so excited for him to be back. He catches EVERYTHING.

 

[Aaron rodgers is god]

Our offense went through 3 phases during the year. First phase we targeted Finley a lot. We had some problems here. Finley is a great player and only adds another dimension to our offense. The only thing is we can't target him every play. The second phase happened when finley got injured. We went back to our roots and distributed the ball to everyone. The third phase happened in the playoffs. We got balanced. More running and more play actions. This is where we did our best in my opinion. Finley's injury was a blessing in a disguise. Simply because we went back to our style of play. There was a statistic that i once saw when ryan grant was still playing. When he gest 20+ carries we are like 15-1. The packers are at their best offensively when they are balanced and they distribute the ball when they pass.

 

[GaryGnu]

The only thing Finley is going to be coming back to is IR. He's fragile.

 

[Aaron rodgers is god]

The only thing Finley is going to be coming back to is IR. He's fragile.

Yah being on the IR one year makes you fragile.....

 

[FrankRizzo]

Rodgers interceptions.... who was the intended receiver on them all?

The clear one that stands out was the loss at Detroit that he got concussed on, he hit Jennings for the deep bomb TD and Jennings let it bounce off his helmet for a pick.

Finley is Antonio Gates. That's a good thing. But Gates and his Chargers never made a Super Bowl. It is a fine line balancing a bunch of great weapons. No wonder why James Jones wants to move on where he can be featured more. He's behind these 2, plus Driver still and probably Jordy.

 

[GreenBayGal]

..."we targeted Finley a lot... "The only thing is we can't target him every play."

I agree here. Finley is great but he's not the only talent on the team. It seems like he was the main target in the beginning of the season. Duh...the oponent can't miss the obvious. I say mix it up. Keep the enemy guessing as to the intended target. Besides (IMO), Jennings still has a lot to offer.

 

[PackersRS]

We target Finley a lot?

Did you guys actually read the article I posted? It clearly shows we didn't...

 

[GreenBayGal]

It's all very subjective. How good was the coverage? How good was the pass? Was the sun in his eyes? I should stay away from the statistic threads.

 

[neilfii]

It's all very subjective. How good was the coverage? How good was the pass? Was the sun in his eyes? I should stay away from the statistic threads.

Odds are against that -- statistically speaking anyway.

 

[PackersRS]

It's all very subjective. How good was the coverage? How good was the pass? Was the sun in his eyes? I should stay away from the statistic threads.

I understand what you're saying, but those statistisc are as objective as can be.

They show number of times players were targeted (even separating in WR, TE and RB), percentage of targets the player had in that game, and number of catches.

He was targeted fairly equally to the other receivers, and had more catches than any other guy. That indicates he wasn't overtargeted. If anything, it shows that he should've been targeted even more, because he was more reliable than the other weapons.

 

[rwb83]

Well, maybe Finley was open more. I would have thrown to him too.

Of course Jennings is going to draw the coverage...I too would throw to Finnley were that the case.