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Packers Trading Up?

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by Packers80, Feb 25, 2012.

  1. Caio
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    Caio Cheesehead

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    why you biased against Perry?
  2. Caio
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    Caio Cheesehead

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    You guys excited about the OLB prospects this year? Does seem a good class
  3. SEWICHEESE
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    SEWICHEESE Cheesehead

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    Well, if trading those 3 picks would only net them going up 10 picks from #197 to #187 in the 6th round, there's cleary no point to doing that. Thank you for checking that out and posting the trade chart.

    I actually did think Thompson would sign a free agent or two this offseason due to the clear urgency of our situation on D and the likelyhood that rookie players and internal improvement likely can't fix those problems for this season. I hope he's not done yet as there will probably be some more decent players cut, up until, and after the June 30th salary bonus deadline(another d lineman to compete in the rotation would be nice). And as long as we get a few rookie contributors in this draft we should be in good shape.
  4. HyponGrey
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    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Some are a bit small, but we've got the coaches to make just about anybody look good. So yes.
  5. SEWICHEESE
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    SEWICHEESE Cheesehead

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    To me he seems too robotic and not very instinctive. I don't think he can cover backs and TE's, meaning he's either a 3-4 pass rush specialist only or a 4-3 DE. Of course I could be wrong, this isn't an exact science. Heck, if Thompson picks him though he's probably a really good player and I will give him the benefit of the doubt until or if he proves that wrong.
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  6. HyponGrey
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    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Amen to that.
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  7. SEWICHEESE
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    SEWICHEESE Cheesehead

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    I wouldn't say plenty but rather there is "some" talent in the 6-7th rounds. But looking back over many drafts since 2000 the talent dropoff is fairly dramatic after the 5th round. Yes, of course there is talent in undrafted free agents as well but the "hit" rate is even less there. These are not worthless picks but the fact that they're not worth much for trading purposes kinda bolsters my argument about the dropoff after the 5th round area. I think the 5th round is kinda the magic cutoff point for many teams in regards to whether or not its worth trading a player who's pretty good but they don't really want anymore.
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  8. HyponGrey
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    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Touche'
  9. SEWICHEESE
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    SEWICHEESE Cheesehead

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    Thanks Hypon,
    No touche' meant, just trying to articulate my opinion, for what ever its worth.
  10. HyponGrey
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    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Just my way of saying "Good point!" I mean it in the most lighthearted of manners
  11. SEWICHEESE
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    SEWICHEESE Cheesehead

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    I know. Thanks.
  12. ThxJackVainisi
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    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Nope, I didn't realize that; sorry.

    Thompson has picked 24 players in the 6th and 7th rounds in seven drafts:

    2005: Mike Montgomery, Craig Bragg, Kurt Campbell, and Will Whitticker.
    2006: Johnny Jolly, Tyrone Culver, and Dave Tollefson.
    2007: Korey Hall, Desmond Bishop, Mason Crosby, DeShaun Wynn, and Clark Harris.
    2008: Matt Flynn and Brett Swain.
    2009: Jarius Wynn, Brandon Underwood, and Brad Jones.
    2010: James Starks and CJ Wilson.
    2011: Caleb Schlauderaff, DJ Smith, Ricky Elmore, Ryan Taylor, Lawrence Guy.

    There are some real diamonds in the rough there: Flynn, Bishop, and Crosby (ya he’s a PK but still…). Jolly would have been another IMO except for his unfortunate love affair with codeine. They may re-acquire Tollefson so he definitely counts on the positive side of the ledger. And James Starks is prototypical of a late pick IMO: You gamble such players can overcome whatever negative is obvious to every team, in his case, injuries. Some others like Hall, Wynn, Jones, and Wilson are “just guys” IMO.

    Anyway, of course the talent thins out late in the draft. I didn’t include UDFAs but Thompson and his staff do a very good job finding players late in the draft and after.
  13. SEWICHEESE
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    SEWICHEESE Cheesehead

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    Don't mean to steal Hypon's thunder here as you responded to his post but...

    I'll give you/TT 6 hits (Jolly, Bishop, Crosby, Flynn, Starks, Smith) out of 24 picks for 25% hit rate. Not too bad for such low rounds but is it that good either(don't really know)? There were some other "OK contributors" too. I'm assuming its better than most, but that is a guess. I'm not counting Tollefson(as he contributed nothing to GB) unless he indeed comes back here. Nice post as always Jack!
  14. ThxJackVainisi
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    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Thanks SEWICHEESE. Just the first sentence of that post was meant to be directed to HyponGrey. The rest was just meant to advance the discussion of the relative worth of 6th and 7th rounders.

    I haven’t (and won’t) do an analysis of the league average in this regard but here’s another way to look at Thompson’s success late in drafts: Had the Packers just exercised their original picks in those rounds Thompson would have exercised 14 picks in 7 drafts. From that point of view his success rate would be over 40% if you think he hit on 6. But that ignores compensation picks and it could be argued that all the trading-down Thompson has done to acquire those picks came at the cost of not exercising the middle round picks he traded away. But Thompson has selected 68 players in those drafts, an average of nearly 10 per, so that’s a difficult case to make. Again, I think it has to do with tiers. If the Packers evaluate several players likely to be picked in the next 15 to 20 players equally, for example, why not trade down and acquire more picks?

    I understand not counting Tollefson but I tend to because I think the drafter should get credit for finding NFL quality players, particularly at the end of the draft.

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