We’re still in good shape to take the division.
We’re a couple games back from the Vikings and Bears, but it helps to look at the past and future schedules.
Based on Footballoutsiders.com’s DVOA ratings, Chicago has played the 25th most difficult schedule in route to 4-1. Going forward, they have the 8th most difficult schedule. In other words, the Bears have had a relatively easy road so far – the one tough game was against us, and they stubbed their tow. Going forward, it gets much more difficult for them.
The Vikings have played the absolute easiest schedule in the league so far (32nd in difficulty) to go 4-2, but they’ve got the 2nd toughest schedule going forward. This is the 3rd largest variance in the league between past and future schedules, and it explains the Vikings’ surprisingly good start. Expect the Vikings to promptly fall off the map as the challengers get more…well…challenging.
The Packers, on the other hand, have played the 3rd toughest schedule in the NFL so far. The only teams with tougher schedules so far are the 2-3 Cowboys and 1-4 Panthers. Despite the gauntlet the Packers have faced (which includes the 3rd, 4th, 7th and 9th best teams in the league, via DVOA – going 2-2 against those teams, including that bogus call in Seattle), the Packers have grinded out a .500 record. Going forward, the difficult in the schedule drops to a much more forgiving 11th. Still tough, but not quite the murders row we’ve faced so far.
Snapshot:
Bears 4-1 SOS: 25th past; 8th future.
Vikings 4-2 SOS: 32nd past; 2nd future.
Packers 3-3 SOS: 3rd past; 11th future.
For anyone curious about the Lions, they’ve played a pedestrian schedule so far (17th in difficulty) to a mere 2-3 record. Going forward, it doesn’t get easier – the difficulty jumps to 4th in the league. Don’t expect a rebound from the Lions. It looks like the they’ve been unable to build on the promise of the previous couple years, and may in fact be regressing.
