Free Giveaway - Discussion Thread

In contests like this, it seems best to play the outlier...a very low or very high guess. With so many picks clustered in a middle range, where he's likely to come in, you could be very close but likely edged out.

I'm predicting you're wrong and it's somewhere in the middle but it's your play. I went low on homeristic tendencies.

Maybe but Robdog, what is the "Free Giveaway". Do we get to pick or do you decide?
I'd like a Lamborghini if I get to pick. But I'd take a Porsche too. I just don't want you to think I'm greedy in all this. If it's like Santa and you get what you played for this year then I want to remind you I never swore on this site this year.
So hoping for at least a cribbage board. But I trust you to make the right decision.

While I'm skeptical of the wisdom of crowds, just for yucks I averaged the 44 guesses posted as of this writing, rounded to the nearest whole number:

5 catches, 62 yards, 1 TD

Well, like I said, it is LIKELY he'll come in somewhere in the middle. But it is certainly possible he'll come in low or high. I like the odds better with a high guess where there are few other guesses. Call it a "black swan" kinda thing.

I meant to post it here. I'm NOT using that as my guess. I guessed higher.

I was watching a TV show last night where a guy did some experiments on wisdom of crowds. He had a big bottle of jelly beans and asked 500 people to guess how many were in it. It happened to have something like 4220. Only 3 people guessed near that number; a few guessed very high near 50,000; many guessed very low. The average was something like 4215...almost spot on.

The election futures markets have also proven to be quite accurate predictors of outcomes.

On the other hand, the "wisdom" of crowds has given us tech and credit bubbles, and Nazi Germany for that matter, so go figure.

Especially when it was me!