Complementary picks for FA losses

Any insight as to whether or not there will be complementary picks coming for the loss of Flynn and Wells?

I imagine the fact that Flynn did not even start will not help, or the fact that Wells missed most of the season due to injury.

Flynn you pretty much count on being a 4. Wells could be a 4, but it depends on how they view our signing of Saturday.

From the way I understand it, the compensatory picks will be determined by weighing the losses in FA against the gains in FA.

Losses - Flynn,Wells,Patrick Lee
Gains - Saturday, Merling

I'm guessing it will all play out as the Packers receiving a 4th and a 5th in compensation picks.

I hear contracts come into play as well.

They have never released the formula so its pretty much a guessing game and not an exact science

If Flynn had become the starter, and played the whole season, it's likely GB would have gotten a 3rd round comp for him, based on escalators in his contract. Instead, we will probably get a 4th round pick for him.

As for Wells' signing: He went to IR near the beginning of the season. That goes into account when determining the compensation. I know Pat Lee's contract was not a minimum contract, so if Merling's was, we might still get a pick for Wells, but it probably won't be a 4th rounder anyway because of his injury.

As was stated before, the contract we signed Saturday to will cancel out one comp pick, so hopefully it's a comp pick for Lee and not Wells.

While it is true that the formula is proprietary, we have this NFL statement from last year:

"Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula."

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0900...tributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-15-clubs

Flynn got a very healthy contract worthy of a 3rd. rounder, but he didn't play. One source with a good track record from last year has him for a 4th.:

2013: http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/

Note this anonymous blogger nailed the two 4ths. for Jenkins and Colledge and the two 7ths. for Jackson and Spitz, and nearly the entire compensatory board for that matter:

2012: http://bloggingthebeast.com/2012/03/26/grading-our-compensatory-pick-projections/

Evidently, this guy has cracked the code to a large degree and considers Wells and Saturday a wash, which seems reasonable. Wells made more money, but only played 7 games. We don't know if Pro Bowl counts as a "postseason award" (ugh!), but if it does that should seal the wash.

Merling and Lee are non-entities and probably earn no consideration at all, but if they did, consider it a wash.

So...for lack of a better source (which I doubt we'd find), one 4th. rounder should be about it. Nothing to sneeze at, in any case.

That's fine by me. No GM hits on every pick, but two of our 4th rounders the last two years have been Jerron McMillian and Devon House, two guys with strong upside and possible future starters. So a complementary 4th with TT is always a good thing.

2012: http://bloggingthebeast.com/2012/03/26/grading-our-compensatory-pick-projections/

Evidently, this guy has cracked the code to a large degree and considers Wells and Saturday a wash, which seems reasonable. Wells made more money, but only played 7 games. We don't know if Pro Bowl counts as a "postseason award" (ugh!), but if it does that should seal the wash.

Merling and Lee are non-entities and probably earn no consideration at all, but if they did, consider it a wash.

So...for lack of a better source (which I doubt we'd find), one 4th. rounder should be about it. Nothing to sneeze at, in any case.[/quote]

Wells has 3 more years on his contract to play and Saturday is finished. It would be a tragedy if Wells plays in the ProBowl for the next three years and we receive nothing for losing him.

Lee started 7 games this year and Merling played sparingly in the first two games. I think Merling is a non-entity and Lee is worth at least a 7th round pick.

As I understand it, they don't project what a player might do in the future (Wells vs. Saturday) when considering picks, as indicated by the previously quoted statement from nfl.com. They look performance and awards from the prior year, along with salary.

If I'm not mistaken, Lee was unceremoniously cut unrelated to any injury after those 7 starts. He's "just a guy".

The league hands out a maximum of 32 picks. I doubt Lee's "points" minus Merling's "points" will hit the radar.

Last year we lost 5 free agents (Daryn Colledge, Korey Hall, Brandon Jackson, Cullen Jenkins and Jason Spitz) and picked up nobody. For that, we got two 4ths and two 7ths. We can figure the 4th's were for Colledge and Jenkins; the 7ths. from the other 3 players, with no offsetting gains.

We'll take the 4th rounder and smile. Honestly, we shouldn't have gotten anything for Flynn, so Saturday wiping Wells is only fair.