We frequently see "$5 million in cap space for the draftees" frequently cited in the press.
This is worth exploring because it is wrong.
Let's start by looking at last year's draft and those players' 2012 first year cap hits rounded to the nearest $10,000:
Perry 1,360,000
Worthy 720,000
Heyward 590,000
Daniels 470,000
McMillian 470,000
Manning 430,000
Datko 0 (on PS, not counted against the cap)
Coleman 0 (on PS, not counted against the cap)
The 2012 cap cost of last year's draft totaled $4.04 million.
While this figure is lower than the frequently cited $5 mil cap hit, that's not the main reason why the $5 mil figure is wrong. The $5 mil fails to account for the cap space gained from cutting the guys who were replaced.
Let's look at that:
This year we will likely have 8 picks (assuming a 4th. round compensation pick for Flynn). In that case, our picks and draft positions will be very close to last year's, assuming no major pick trades. So the salary scale allocation to those picks will be about the same as last year.
So, for example, if we were to assume a similar outcome as last year (top 6 picks make the 53 man roster), then six old cap hits are being replaced. Since only the top 51 cap hits count against the cap, lets look at the bottom 6 current cap hits (players 46 - 51), which would be the minimum cap $ being replaced.
All of those 6 players are assigned cap values of $480,000, for a total of approx. $2.9 million.
So, if this year's final roster selections from the draft went like last year, the maximum cap hit from the rookie class would be about $1.1 mil.
If, for example, you start thinking about rookies replacing guys like Quarless ($1.32 mil cap savings including dead cap) or even Hawk ($2.25 mil cap savings including dead cap), it is not hard to see how a draft class can net a gain in cap space.
I don't think a lot of writers have come to fully appreciate the impact of the rookie salary scale implemented with the new CBA. The simplest way to look at it is with the Hayward example. He was the #62 pick, bottom of the second round. His $590,000 cap hit in 2012 was not appreciably more than the $390,000 rookie minimum, and was less than the 3rd. year vet minimum of $600,000.
Or looked at another way, our upcoming 2nd. round pick's 2013 cap hit would be less than a guy like Zombo playing for the 4th. year vet minimum.
Since the cap hits of low 2nd. rounders are about the same as or less than "just guys", your rookies can have the affect of lowering your cap hit. Worst case, the affect is about a $1 mil cap hit.
The only picks who might meaningfully increase your cap hit in their rookie years is the guys taken in roughly the #1 - #50 spots.
I think this will be the first year where the affects of the CBA will be particularly evident. Elite player pay keeps going up, while the cap is stagnant (actually down $7 mil from 2009). A good chunk of the cap savings from the rookie salary scale is simply being channeled to the elite players. That means the middle is being squeezed. I think the B level FA players (merely solid starters; aging stars or near-stars; injury histories) looking for fat second or third contracts might be disappointed. Young near-or-rising-stars going into their second deal will probably do well.
In this respect (keeping all 8 picks from last year; dropping Jennings, Woodson, Driver, Saturday) TT is somewhat ahead of the curve.