BPA, BVA, and Tiers of Talent in the Draft

AmishMafia

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Over the past 30 years, the Packers have had better success drafting in the second half of the first round than the top tier if you consider that line to be the 17th pick.

Top Tier Busts:
#2 Mandarich 1989
#4 Brent Fullwood 1987
#5 Terrell Buckley 1992
#6 Rich Campbell 1981
#10 Jamal Reynolds 2001
#12 Alphonso Carreker 1984
#14 Mossy Cade 1986
#16 Justin Harrell 2007

Lower Tier Busts:
#19 Darrell Thompson 1990
#19 Vinnie Clark 1991
#25 Antoine Edwards 1999
#25 Ahmad Carroll 2004
#27 John Michels 1996

They had nine players pan out in the top tier and twelve in the lower tier of the first round (leaving Derek Sharrod out since it's too soon to assess). So we've got 9 of 17 in the top tier and 12 of 17 in the lower tier since 1980. Coincidentally or not, the average draft position for the Packers since 1980 is the 17th pick (17.3 to be exact).

More geeky stat data based on my analysis:
83% Ted Thomson's 1st Round Success Rate (2005-current)
67% Mike Sherman's 1st Round Success Rate (2002-2004)
64% Ron Wolf's 1st Round Success Rate (1992-2001)
43% Pre-Ron Wolf combined (Starr/Gregg/Braatz) 1st Round Success Rate (1980-1991)
Nice work!

Was Carriker really a bust? Seems to me we got a few years out of him.

(Btw Mossy was not picked by the Packers)
 

El Guapo

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Carriker probably should be moved out of the bust category. As for Cade, I know that the Chargers drafted him but I list him because the Packers traded away their first round pick in '86 (and I think a lesser pick maybe in '87) to get Cade. In my database it's listed as a trade but I just listed him here as a pick for brevity.
 
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TJV

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Rather than try to get Arrigo's thread on Thompson's draft methodology back on track
 
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