Falcon fan here, and I live in the metro Atlanta area, so I've seen every Falcon game since the 80's. Ryan is 17-1 at home, and undefeated against the NFC. The only home loss came against the Broncos back in '08. Here's how Green Bay can win.
Defense:
1) Must pressure Matt Ryan by jamming the receivers at the LOS and not allowing free releases. He'll look for White, Jenkins, Gonzo and then the running back. If those aren't available, he'll either throw it away or just scramble. He'll rarely take a sack and will rarely force the ball into coverage.
2) Contain Michael Turner. We average 129 ypg which is 7th in the league. Arm tackles will not bring Turner down. His game revolves around 3-5 yard runs that is designed to wearing the D down. GB will have to penetrate the backfield and force Turner to dance around and ultimately lose yardage. This will force 2nd and long and 3rd and long.
3) The Falcons do a great job of holding on to the ball (only 5 fumbles whereas you guys forced 10 fumbles all year). Ryan has only thrown 5 picks all year. It's not easy, but I know you guys are well equipped to strip the ball at any given opportunity, so our receivers and backs will have to protect the ball at all times.
4) Confuse Ryan at the LOS. Gotta watch out for the no huddle as it gave St. Louis and Baltimore absolute fits. The Falcons have also played a few 3-4 teams this year, with only one loss to a 3-4 team (pittsburgh). Woodson and Matthews will be the key. I know GB will blitz Woodson from anywhere, so it will be imperative for the Falcons to know where he is at all times.
5) 3rd downs. I can't say this enough for you guys, but we lead the league in 10+ plays per game. Part of that is because we're able to convert 3rd downs 49% of the time. We're also 2nd in the league in TOP pg and nearly doubling the number of plays against our opponent.
With that said, if you have us on 3rd down, you gotta shut down all of Ryan's options and force him to hold on to the ball longer than he has to. It's also key to force him into 3rd and long situations. If you take away White and Gonzo, he'll have to look to Finneran, Snelling and/or Turner for the first down.
We're not flashy by any means, so you won't see any reverses, wildcats, or flea flickers. We rarely beat ourselves with silly penalties or turnovers.
Last but not least, Ryan can move the ball downfield in crunch time. So, you'd have to be up by at least 10 with 1 minute to play to secure the win.
Here's the biggest key of the game defensively for you guys. While we are tops in the league in TOP AND 10+ plays, we are awful in the red zone. Too many times, we'll settle for 3 instead of 6. So, even if we're in the red zone in 1st and goal situations, chances are we'll settle for 3.
Offense:
1) You can throw on our secondary all day long. We constantly play 5-10 yrds off the receiver, so any intermediate route will be open. We've also been burned a LOT by big plays down the field (think Lance Moore's TD against us and Mike Williams burning Dunta for a TD). You guys specialize in big plays with Greg Jennings, and with Rodgers big arm, it could make for a long day for our secondary. We're 24th in the league in pass defense btw.
2) We're still a young defense, but you can definitely beat us with trick plays and misdirection plays. We do a horrible job defending against reverses and screens, though we've done slightly better defending screens lately.
3) We do a horrible job closing out teams during the middle of the game. We constantly allow teams to march up and down the field the majority of the game, but we are able to hold it down in the 4th quarter.
4) You gotta watch out for Abe, and that's pretty much it. Biermann hasn't had a big game since the Cleveland game nearly a month ago. We do rotate our interior lineman in and out to keep them fresh. We do try to blitz, but we rarely get to the quarterback with any consistency. In fact, we get "close" but rarely able to finish taking the quarterback down.
Special Teams:
You guys should absolutely own us. Every kickoff and punt return has me sweating bullets. Too many times, Koenen has to bail us out by making a touchdown saving tackle.
On the flip side, we rarely get any explosive plays from our return team.
So that's about it.
tl:dr
Keep White in check
Force Ryan to hold on to the ball/make bad throws
Get off the field on 3rd downs.
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Keep Rodgers upright and he'll have plenty of time to exploit our secondary
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Tell your returners to put on their track shoes.
I look forward to an exciting game between the two teams Sunday
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