49ers Scouting Report from a Niner fan...

Greetings Packer fans. No smack talk here. I enjoy having good football conversations with fans of opposing teams. I'm not going to break down the entire game as you Packer fans clearly know your team much better than I do. This is just a post about the team you face saturday. I'll try to be biased free...but I am a Niner fan so it's not possible to be completely biased free.

1) Kaepernick/Smith: Don't let their similar stats fool you. Even tho their stats seem comparable, they are TOTALLY different QBs. Kaep throws 27% of his passes more than 15 yards in the air (2nd in the NFL). Alex throws it more than 15 yards 13% of the time (39th in the NFL). According to PFF (Pro Football Focus) Kaep is the second best downfield passer in the NFL (completes 57% of his 25 plus yard passes with 5 TDs and 1 INT through 7 games). Alex....well....doesn't. LOL. Alex is more experienced and not apt to making young QB mistakes as peeps would assume that Kaep is....but so far Kaep has avoided those mistakes. They hav thrown the exact same number of passes and Kaep has thrown 3 INTs to Alexs 5. Yes, Kaep has some good wheels, but its what hes doing with his head and arm that have fans in SF excited.

If any of you are curious about him, below is a highlight reel.



IMO Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL and it ain't close. I knew he was good up the road here at Cal. Mike McCarthy was the OC in SF when the Niners passed of Rodgers and took Smith. I've never seen a guy benefit more from making the wrong decision. ;-)

2) Defense: This also isn't the same defense the Packers faced in the first game of the season...and I mean that in the Packers favor. Justin Smith will be back, but he won't be 100%. Aldon Smith hasn't had a sack in 3 games since Justin was hurt, but alot of that is that Brady got the ball out quick, Wilson did his Tarkenton impression, and the Cards....well...no excuse for that...lol. He had been nursing a bad shoulder tho. The Niners are VERY deep at corner with Rogers, Brown, Culliver (Nickel back may be their best), and Cox. They are all also very physical. Expect the 49ers to rush 3 or 4 for most of the game and play a "big nickel" until the Pack run them out of it. Thats the key...The Packers have to get the 49ers out of the Nickel. If they can do it, their chances go up dramatically. They weren't able to do it in week 1, but clearly both of these teams are very different from the last time they played.

3) Run game: The Run game has changed as well. The Niners probabl.y have the best O-Line in the NFL when it comes to run blocking. All 5 members are Pro Bowlers (Staley, Iupati) or Alternates (Davis, Boone, Goodwin). However, they have fallen from the 1st ranked run O to the 4th over the last several weeks. There are a few factors: First, the loss of Kendall Hunter for the season was HUGE. It forced Gore to have to carry more of the load which was exactly what the 49ers were trying to avoid. Frank is the best RB is SF history, but he runs so hard that he wears down at the end of the year. Thankfully in recent weeks LaMichael James has stepped up his game and has become a viable threat. Second, Kaep is a better passer so the Niners are calling more passes. They have fewer "grind it out for 20 play" drives inder Kaep.

4) Kicker: You guys know all about kicking issues this year. LOL. Akers just revealed this week that he had surgery in Feb for a DOUBLE sports hernia. Ouch. It flared up again in the Saints game this year and he hasn't been the same since. The 49ers brought in Cundiff to compete with him but I wouldn't be shocked if they BOTH were on the roster. I'm just hoping this game doesn't come down to a FG.

5) Bye: HUGE. The 49ers needed time to heal. That doesn't guarantee anything, but the Niners NEEDED that bye in a big way

Anyway, I hope some of you may find this intersting. If not, feel free to ignore. ;-)

Here's why I currently HATE the 49ers.
LUCK.

Justin Smith is back... like we just got Woodson back. Not 100% but happy to have them back.

You ****** have everybody else healthy. ALL YOUR GOOD GUYS.
All your first round picks on the OL. All healthy. We have our 2011 & 2010 first round pick OT's on IR. Nice.

You have all your great LBers, Willis and Bowman, just fine healthy. Plus Ahmad Brooks, just fine.
We have our 2012 first round pick stud, OLB Nick Perry, out on IR. Nice.

Oh, we also have our only physical ILB, starter, Desmond Bishop, on IR since pre-season. Played zero snaps this year.
We also have his fine backup at ILB, DJ Smith, out on IR for the year. We're down to our #4 ILB who really is an OLB.

Oh, Alden and Justin are there this week too.... we have our 2nd round pick DL Jerel Worthy, just tore his ACL last week.

Oh, Frank Gore your starter, is healthy too?
We lost our starting RB Cedric Benson, another former 1st round pick who we were expecting big things from.

I know the Niners are missing their 3 & 4 WRs in Manningham and the fumbler. But we've had WRs miss more games than you have......

I'm tired of the injuries and would like to see San Fran go on without their last 3 first round picks, 2 OTs, their 2nd best OLB and 2 starting ILBers.

LOL. Sorry Man,

The Niners are down their "1A" RB in Kendall Hunter as well, but I get your point.

See, personally I believe that a big part of this has to do with a proper strength and conditioning program. But anyone who says luck doesn't play a part in injuries is kidding themselves.

Great breakdown

So the guy had the surgery almost 12 months ago.... and he made that NFL-record 63-yard FG against us in September almost 7 months after it..... if not for David Akers 2 years ago in Philly, things might be a LOT LOT LOT different for the Packers and Rodgers image.

Very informative post Marvin49.

One thing to be watched closely is that in week 1 it was no contest about who controlled the LOS on both sides. The Packer OL was pathetic and SF pressured Rodgers all day long. The GB offense was much more 1-dimensional early in the season and that has changed. The 9ers absolutely must get to Rodgers, but I'm predicting that will be harder to do this time around. Not only does Rodgers have most of his weapons back (and several are much improved from early in the season, e.g. Finley who is actually catching the ball and not dropping it!), but the Packers actually have a running game. DeJuan Harris has been a very pleasant surprise.

Kaepernick in his 1st playoff game. This will be interesting. He's good, better than Smith.

LOL.

Yeah..that some bad luck.

How about this one....

The 49ers are playing the Saints. At the Snap of the ball 49ers WR Kyle Williams attempts to block a LB. While in contact, Williams steps awkwardly and tears his ACL. That same LB is then left free to run down the RB from behind...and ruptures the Achilles Tendon of that RB in the process.

Yes...you read that right. The same player caused 2 season ending injuries on the same play.

Who was the player BTW?

SMDH. Jonathan Vilma.

He reinjured it in the Saints game...his numbers have dropped like a rock since that game.

Didn't somebody expose Culliver this year? I know we tried, but we failed miserably

Professional Scouting Report on the 49ers:
"They're tough as heck to beat...."

....so either we beat 'em and nobody can stop us from rolling to the Superbowl - or they wind up winning it all ... or Denver - idk .... I'm gonna be nervous all week thou.

He's had some trouble with some jump passes the last few weeks, but I wouldn't say anyone has "exposed" him.

Kapernick is going to turn the ball over at least twice. You heard it here first.

Rodgers will have the defense figured out.

We win this.

Yeah, Smith was injured by an illegal cut block from behind that never got called. Not quite comparable.

Our Losses:
Bishop, Starting ILB
Smith, Replaced above*
Benson, Starting RB
Bulaga, Starting T
Sherrod, Would-be-starting T**
Perry, Starting Rookie OLB
Worthy, Rookie DE
COLLINS, STARTING FS***

*Illegal hit
**Last year
***REALLY ticks me off

Well...he's turned it over 4 times in 7 games...but OK, if you say so.

Wow. **** that. Vilma should have been still suspended.

We lost Aaron Kampman and Al Harris to torn ACLs at home AGAINST YOUR 49ers a few years ago.
And back in the day, also against the 49ers, Robert Brooks tore his ACL, no contact like the 2 I mentioned.

Plus there's the whole "The Catch 2" by Terrell Owens from Stumbling Steve Young on the last play of the playoff game to eliminate us.... which came after Jerry Rice fumbled the game away, but the ref decided to ignore it.

People always remember that Rice fumble...

...but they forget the year before when the Pack won on Monday night on the Beebe "catch" and run...the one where he didn't actually catch the ball and then even if he had he was clearly touched when he was down. That put the playoff game that year in GB and was a big reason the Pack won. Total BS.

Point is...we can go round and round...doesn't matter. I wasn't trying to make a comparison on injuries to say "our were worse", just trying to give you guys a laugh...a guy who should have been suspended for bounties taking out 2 players for the season on one play. Losing Hunter was huge too. He was having a very good season spelling Gore.

I guess he earned his bounty money THAT day......

Good OP. All this just my opinion: The key to this game is the Packers' OL. If they can get enough movement in the run game to make the 49ers bring a safety into the box or get out of their nickel D, it will be a very good day for the Packers' offense. If they can't do that but are still able to give Rodgers time when the 49ers rush 4, it'll be a very good day for the Packers' offense. If the Packers offense (aka Aaron Rodgers) has a very good day I think the Packers win.

Unfortunately, the problem for the Packers is their OL. At LT they start a fifth round compensation pick in his third year, at LG a fourth rounder in his fourth year, OC is an UDFA in his third year, RG is a fourth rounder in his fifth year, and the RT is a rookie UDFA who will be starting his 6th game in the NFL. I'm certainly not saying draft position (or an acquisition via UDFA) locks a player into a certain level of play in the NFL, but it isn't meaningless either. As already mentioned, the fact that two OTs who were first round picks are out for the season is significant.

While the 49ers offense is improved I think the Packers' D is good enough if the Packers offense can sustain drives and put points on the board. And as always, protecting the ball and the turnover ratio will be critical for the Packers. And if it comes down to a game winning kick by Crosby…
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Here's a question I've been meaning to ask which probably doesn't deserve its own thread but is relevant to this game: How long is a QB on a "read option" play exposed to hits by a defender as compared to a QB traditionally handing off? With the success of QBs like Russell Wilson, RGIII, and Kaepernick running the read option I wonder if that play exposes them to injury more than just them running the ball. (The read option has the QB put the ball in the RB's gut but he hangs onto it as he reads a particular defender's reaction. The QB either lets go and the RB runs it or keeps the ball - pulls it back out of the RB's gut - and runs with it himself.) Certainly after a QB hands the ball off traditionally defenders can't hit him without incurring a penalty. But how about the read option QB? Just as a RB who is carrying out a fake can be hit - hammered - by a defender, shouldn't a QB running a read option be in the same situation for at least a step or two even after he completes the handoff? IMO the QB should be fair game on a read option play until he assumes a "drop-back position", or the RB has taken two or three steps. The NFL probably wouldn't agree because one of their highest priorities is protecting QBs. But certainly the QB is exposed during the "read" and IMO should be for a period thereafter beyond a QB tradionally handing off.

I don't actually think there's much to figure out to be honest. Niners don't use elaborate blitzes or zone schemes... About the wildest thing they do is the stunts at the LOS with the Smiths. If I remember well enough, Niners basically played nickel D, and man coverage most of the game. If their ability to get to Rodgers fails, then we're doomed. If they can get pressure without leaving a man open, I like our chances. Rodgers will have a nice game either way... But giving him a zone defense to murder isn't the best way to try and win.

So how is he in the playoffs?

Since when? I've seen many a QB hit on a handoff but never seen a penalty for it. There is a reasonable period of time where it is understood that the defender might have thought the handoff was a fake.